Search results for "Expected return"
showing 10 items of 10 documents
Forecasting portfolio returns using weighted fuzzy time series methods
2016
We propose using weighted fuzzy time series (FTS) methods to forecast the future performance of returns on portfolios. We model the uncertain parameters of the fuzzy portfolio selection models using a possibilistic interval-valued mean approach, and approximate the uncertain future return on a given portfolio by means of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Introducing some modifications into the classical models of fuzzy time series, based on weighted operators, enables us to generate trapezoidal numbers as forecasts of the future performance of the portfolio returns. This fuzzy forecast makes it possible to approximate both the expected return and the risk of the investment through the value and a…
Grading investment diversification options in presence of non-historical financial information
2021
Modern portfolio theory deals with the problem of selecting a portfolio of financial assets such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk. The forecast of the expected individual assets’ returns and risk is usually based on their historical returns. In this work, we consider a situation in which the investor has non-historical additional information that is used for the forecast of the expected returns. This implies that there is no obvious statistical risk measure any more, and it poses the problem of selecting an adequate set of diversification constraints to mitigate the risk of the selected portfolio without losing the value of the non-statistical information owne…
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Models for Dealing with Investor’s Preferences
2017
This chapter provides an overview of the authors’ previous work about dealing with investor’s preferences in the portfolio selection problem. We propose a fuzzy model for dealing with the vagueness of investor preferences on the expected return and the assumed risk, and then we consider several modifications to include additional constraints and goals.
A fuzzy ranking strategy for portfolio selection applied to the Spanish stock market
2007
In this paper we present a fuzzy ranking procedure for the portfolio selection problem. The uncertainty on the returns of each portfolio is approximated by means of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The expected return and risk of the portfolio are then characteristics of that fuzzy number. A rank index that accounts for both expected return and risk is defined, allowing the decision-maker to compare different portfolios. The paper ends with an application of that fuzzy ranking strategy to the Spanish stock market.
Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
2007
: We study the profitability of trading strategies based on volatility spillovers between large and small firms. By using the Volatility Impulse-Response Function of Lin (1997) and its extensions, we detect that any volatility shock coming from small companies is important to large companies, but the reverse is only true for negative shocks coming from large firms. To exploit these asymmetric patterns in volatility, different trading rules are designed based on the inverse relationship existing between expected return and volatility. We find that most strategies generate excess after-transaction cost profits, especially after very bad news and very good news coming from large or small firm…
Illiquidity Risk and the Long-Run Underperformance of Seasoned Equity Issues in the Spanish Market
2008
This paper presents new evidence on potential risk-based explanations for the low SEO returns in the year after the issue. Specifically, we analyse whether the issue leads to a long-term higher stock liquidity that implies that SEO stocks have lower expected return due to lower exposure to liquidity risk factor. Therefore, we investigate if Spanish SEO firms experience significant changes in long-term liquidity after the issue. Results suggest that SEO-firm liquidity increases significantly in the year after the issue. Finally, we explore the post-performance of SEO firms explicitly accounting for liquidity risk. In particular, we employ the three factor model by Fama and French (1993) exte…
Measuring Uncertainty in the Portfolio Selection Problem
2018
In this paper, we propose a new index for ranking portfolios based on the credibility expected return and loss on their investment. We assume that the return on a given portfolio is modeled as a trapezoidal fuzzy variable, whose credibility distribution is built using the data set of its historical returns. The credibilistic loss on the investment for a given portfolio is measured by means of a suitable loss function. In order to take risk-adverse investor attitudes into account, we analyze the performance of some credibility measures related to loss and risk on the investment for a given portfolio and their relationship with similar possibility measures. A numerical example is presented sh…
Evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms for fuzzy portfolio selection
2016
Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted HighlightsWe consider a constrained three-objective optimization portfolio selection problem.We solve the problem by means of evolutionary multi-objective optimization.New mutation, crossover and reparation operators are designed for this problem.They are tested in several algorithms for a data set from the Spanish stock market.Results for two performance metrics reveal the effectiveness of the new operators. In this paper, we consider a recently proposed model for portfolio selection, called Mean-Downside Risk-Skewness (MDRS) model. This modelling approach takes into account both the multidimensional nature of the portfolio selection problem and the requir…
Distance Measures for Portfolio Selection
2017
The classical Markowitz approach to the portfolio selection problem (PSP) consists of selecting the portfolio that minimises the return variance for a given level of expected return. By solving the problem for different values of this expected return we obtain the Pareto efficient frontier, which is composed of non-dominated portfolios. The final user has to discriminate amongst these points by resorting to an external criterion in order to decide which portfolio to invest in. We propose to define an external portfolio that corresponds to a desired criterion, and to assess its distance from the Markowitz frontier in market allowing for short-sellings or not. We show that this distance is ab…
Fuzzy Degree of Geographic Appropriateness for Social Impact Investing
2017
Impact investing is an investment practice that is characterized by the explicit intentionality of attaining a social impact and the requisite of report and measure this impact in a transparent way. The investment decision making process has two main stages. In the first stage, filters are applied regarding four critical issues: target geography, impact theme, asset class and target return category. In this phase, the set of possible investment alternatives are determined based on their appropriateness for impact investment in terms of those four essential aspects. In a second stage, efficient portfolios are obtained taking into account financial criteria (maximizing expected return, minimi…